U.S. Presidential Election ’08: Uphill race for Republicans

Published: 2007 - October, Current Affairs

Rudolph Giuliani or John McCain, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama? Just one year before the United States presidential election (set for November 4, 2008), the election campaign is heating up. According to a study published by the Project for Excellence in Journalism of Washington, U.S. media dedicate more space to presidential candidates than to the war in Iraq. This disparity is destined to grow: There are only four months left until Super Tuesday (February 5, 2008), when the presidential primary elections will be held simultaneously in 20 states, representing half of the U.S. population. On that date we might already know – regardless of the fact that the primaries are to go on until June – who are likely to become the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees.
Pursuant to the two-term limit set in the 22nd Amendment, the incumbent president, Republican George W. Bush, cannot be re-elected; Vice-President Dick Cheney has already announced he would not seek the party nomination: This is the first time since 1928 that this has happened.
It is quite difficult, therefore, to get a clear picture of likely nominees. According to polls, the current leading candidates are Rudy Giuliani among the Republicans and Hillary Clinton among Democrats. Giuliani can count on his solid track record as Mayor of New York, and in case he wins he will be the first Italian-American and second Roman-Catholic (following Kennedy) to reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Renowned for his Zero Tolerance policy, Giuliani, who has been known to support stricter gun laws and to favor civil unions, is alas considered too soft by large segments of the Republican conservative base.
The Democrat senator of New York and former First Lady can count on a lasting and widespread reputation, the support of her husband, Bill, and her guaranteed attractiveness to the media for her potential to become the first woman president. Her election campaign is focusing on social issues, such as universal healthcare.
Another candidate of the Democratic Party – which is eager to win the presidency after having been defeated twice, with Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 – is the charismatic Barack Obama, 46, the senator of Illinois. Obama’s appeal as a newcomer to politics may just get him to the White House as the first African-American U.S. president. Skilled in the use of new technologies (he has the highest number of supporters on the Facebook and MySpace web sites), Barack is right behind Hillary Clinton in the polls, but expects the African-American community to vote for him en masse. And then Clinton must also defend herself almost daily against calculated attacks coming from both Republicans and her fellow Democrat candidates – with Democrats John Edwards (senator of North Carolina) and Chris Dodd (5-term senator of Connecticut) leading the pack.
Leading Republican candidates behind Rudy Giuliani are according to polls the 71-year-old senator of Arizona John McCain and two former governors: Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. But the main challenger may turn out to be actor-politician Fred Dalton Thompson. The star of the TV series “Law & Order” and former senator of Tennessee was the last to announce his candidacy.
Most alarming for the Republicans’ ambitions has been the change of wind on Wall Street: The ABC television network, analyzing presidential campaign contributions, has discovered that the world of finance offers greater support to Democrat candidates, writing them fatter checks.
Other negative issues for Republicans are President George W. Bush’s credibility problems after eight years in power and, especially, the ongoing war in Iraq. Thus, by mid 2006 polls showed that the Democratic candidates were likely to draw more votes than their Republican counterparts. But everything may change when the President will get ready to step down and the media limelights will turn to the new Republican standard-bearers.
On November 4, 2008, Americans will also elect 435 House Representatives and 35 U.S. Senators. And so, beyond the qualities of each candidate, the elections will be of great political importance – and no one should underestimate the G.O.P.’s ability to reverse the current trend in the last months of the election campaign.